The crash may be predictable before it happens
Samsara says risky driver patterns can become visible weeks before a collision, moving fleet safety from event review towards prediction.
Perhaps the most important finding in Samsara's research is not the concentration of crashes.
It is when the risk becomes visible.
According to Samsara, when its model compared a driver who subsequently crashed with one who did not, it prioritised the crash involved driver approximately three out of four times.
The company says risky patterns can become visible weeks before a collision.
Think about what that means.
Traditional fleet safety asks:
What happened?
Video telematics asks:
Why did it happen?
Risk intelligence begins asking:
Who is most likely to have an incident next?
That is potentially much more valuable.
THE NEXT QUESTION
If software identifies a driver as having a materially elevated probability of a collision, what should happen?
- Training?
- Automated coaching?
- A conversation with the manager?
- Reduced driving hours?
- Different routes?
- Additional monitoring?
- The technology is moving quickly.
- The operational policies surrounding it will now need to catch up.
Sources
This story first appeared in The Fleet Brief Issue 003, published 16 September 2026.